Date: 18:41:38 on Monday, March 13, 2017 [Post edited: 19:11:36 03/13/2017]
Name: boomersooner
Subject: Re: Question...

(Edited to correct syntax)

It's simply a link abbreviation tool. Probably did not need to use it in this case - its mostly for very long links. No ulterior motive at all. just something I play with, though not that much, if at all, here. It IS a direct link to the 538 article, instead of to a rehash and discussion available all over the place.

Silver is basically a statistician who started out doing baseball analysis. I'm talking about a real statistician, not some pseudo expert who twists things to his own purpose - not that he is perfect or some don't like everything he puts out. If you read the Wiki discussion,he was named by Time as one of the 100 most influential people in the world after his practically perfect call of the 2008 election.

He did not call the last election( no one really did, including me), but was one the the very few "experts" who gave Trump a plausible shot at winning - 30%. That is much closer than the usual extremely overblown predictions that gave him < 10% if any chance.

What he is saying is that you can't accurately predict anything in the US political landscape if you don't look beyond your own narrow environment to the whole of the country beyond it. While those of us living outside "the bubble" do not find anything remarkable about that assumption - which we would see as obvious - it is a new occurrence in this day and age for someone like Silver, who works within the media establishment and has no apparent ideological ax to grind vis a' vis his peers, to call out that majority who have a perspective limited by parochial thinking.

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